New climate pledges only slightly lower dangerous global warming projections

New Climate Pledges Slightly Lower Warming Projections

According to the UN Environment Programme’s (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target, global warming projections for this century have modestly improved. If all Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are fully implemented, average warming is projected at 2.3–2.5°C, compared to 2.6–2.8°C in 2024’s report.

Slow Progress Toward Paris Goals

The UNEP analysis, released in Nairobi on 4 November 2025, indicates that current policies would still result in up to 2.8°C of warming, slightly better than last year’s 3.1°C projection. However, the improvement is minor. About 0.1°C of the change comes from updates in methodology, and another 0.1°C is negated by the planned withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement. This means that the new NDCs themselves have contributed little real progress.

Risks of Exceeding Temperature Limits

The report warns that nations remain far from meeting the Paris Agreement objective of keeping warming well below 2°C, while striving not to exceed 1.5°C. The average global temperature is expected to surpass 1.5°C at least temporarily during this century.

"Scientists tell us that a temporary overshoot above 1.5°C will be difficult to reverse and will demand deeper and faster emission cuts to minimize damage, protect lives and economies, and reduce dependence on uncertain carbon removal technologies."

Urgent Need for Stronger Action

UNEP emphasizes that only faster, larger-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions can prevent severe climate impacts and reduce the likelihood of long-term ecological and economic harm.

Author’s summary: UNEP’s 2025 report shows slight progress in lowering global warming projections but warns that current pledges remain far from achieving the targets of the Paris Agreement.

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UN Environment Programme UN Environment Programme — 2025-11-05

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