OP-ED: Think chicken is pricey now? Just wait for 2026
Sylvain Charlebois writes that supply management in Canada was created to protect both farmers and consumers by ensuring stability, fairness, and predictability in the food supply. However, 2025 has revealed how vulnerable this system has become.
Canada is currently experiencing one of the most severe chicken shortages in recent memory, with consumers bearing the brunt of rising costs rather than farmers or processors. For decades, chicken has been a dependable protein in the Canadian diet due to its versatility, affordability, and insulation from global price volatility.
Yet, the system designed to secure a steady supply failed this year. The Chicken Farmers of Canada, responsible for setting production quotas in eight-week "A-periods," has underproduced for nine consecutive cycles—something not seen in over forty years.
How the supply management system faltered
Supply management relies on three main pillars:
- Domestic production
- Controlled imports
- Storage reserves
Typically, if one pillar weakens, the others compensate. This time, however, all three failed simultaneously. Following an oversupply in late 2023, the industry cut production quotas to prevent another surplus heading into the 2024 holiday season—an attempt that backfired.
"By early 2025, demand rebounded sharply as record-high beef prices sent households searching for cheaper animal protein."
This unexpected increase in demand left the reduced chicken supply unable to keep up, causing prices to rise sharply and shortages to worsen.
Summary
Canada’s chicken supply system, once a reliable model, is now at risk as simultaneous failures in production, imports, and reserves disrupt availability, leading to higher prices for consumers.
"Supply management is designed to protect both farmers and consumers — a uniquely Canadian invention meant to ensure stability, fairness, and predictability in our food supply."
Support for independent reporting remains crucial to exposing such issues as this story unfolds.
Author's conclusion
The Canadian chicken supply crisis reveals critical weaknesses in supply management, warning consumers that prices will likely continue to climb through 2026.
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